My Quotes: Explaining Drake…

New Category… My Quotes. Why repeat things? Post ‘em, reference ‘em, be done with it. First up, explaining the results of Drake Equation…

“To explain the results of the Drake equation to other people — especially people who understand the Fermi Paradox — I would say, consider first that life as we know it, is rather small relative to the scale of the Universe. And second, that there are forgotten factors in the Drake equation, things like time, or the distribution of civilizations over such a factor as time or even space. So, because life as we know it hasn’t evolved on the scale of the Universe and has only ever thrived on the planetary scale, it is unlikely given the results of the Drake Equation, given observations like the Fermi Paradox, given existing physics, and given the size of the known Universe, that we shall come to contact some alien intelligence of a form of life as we know it. Though, I believe of all that rubbish… the greatest constraint is really philosophical and it is in how we define things like alien, intelligence and life.”

Survival Will be Shrink Wrapped

I’ve written about this topic before. And though I type on it, stare at a laptop screen framed of it, and am utterly surrounded by it, the idea is still provocative even to me, that plastic (an innovation so subtle yet ubiquitous) is also at the core of a potential threat to life on Earth. I took a real interest in this idea because it seemed obviously urgent, but because one particular aspect seemed totally, and a bit ironically neglected. The irony I find is, so many people fall back on the topic of the weather. Evidently, not so much when it counts. To help myself and others understand my somewhat radical thoughts about the environment, and to discuss such ironically neglected aspects, I present as preface three very real, very relevant facts about our planet and life, followed by obvious speculation about how these phenomena might be inter-connected and in such a way as to to change life as we know it.

Read the rest of this entry »

David Deutsch: What is our place in the cosmos?

“Problems are soluble.  Problems are inevitable.”

Michael Shermer: Why people believe strange things

Peak Education

Summer, 2008. You can’t seem to buy a headline that doesn’t remind you that the price of gasoline is at a record high. Everyone is coming out of the wood-work talking Peak oil. Articles stapled to the same headlines fall back on the same, now tiring, discussion about rising demands, shrinking supplies, and the myriad speculative strategies playing out on the open energy market — they talk about anything except solving the problem. Thats because we’re not only at a peak in oil production (which generally drives all other production), we’re at a peak in our production of educated problem solvers. We’ve got a nation of pontificates (at times, myself included).

While Congress questions Big Oil hoping markets can police themselves (lasting it’s tie to capitalism), the opposite only seems obvious and true to consumers and the American people, leaving some of the best analysts wondering, “Is speculation or fundamentals driving the price of oil?” I prefer my question, is it Need or Greed? But, there should be no surprise so little has gotten done, Americans always worry first about who is to blame despite whats opportunities are lost in the meantime — thats the terrifying reality that landed us in Iraq: the need to blame. But, even as we grow nearer to what may amount to the largest energy crisis in American history (perhaps the history of all of our species), and America spirals downward, I realize I have a greater fear, one worse than expensive commodities: my fellow Americans.

Besides the pointless chatter surrounding oil that fills the media — which wastes more energy (in the form of oil, et al) than anything else given its return value — I hear a common notion threaded across the perspective of average Americans: Americans believe George W. Bush, our current President, did all this with a simple policy of “drill and veto.” But, and this is what scares me most, they also believe conversely, that when Bush leaves office these problems will go with him. They believe somehow through Bush’s ties to Big Oil, he was capable of masterminding this global economic shift at the most fundamental level: commodities pricing. Our President alone is not that powerful, thankfully. However, the American people are when they can be united.

So, my poor, undereducated Americans, so down-turned by bad policy, despite your instinct, please forget your dire need to blame. Realize that holding a belief that any such problems will vanish overnight is in fact a form of greed itself, and not need, and is an idea that is plain stupid. We as a society, must exercise the discipline we lacked prior to this, leading us here, in order to find the way out.

Beyond that, personally I feel, George W. Bush, our President, couldn’t mastermind a few elegant English statements in the form of complete English sentences given chair, desk, ink, pen and good reason to do so. And that my friends… is the problem with America, forget oil, we’re at Peak education.

Peak education is the point in time when the maximum rate of distribution for global education, training, and knowledge is reached, after which the rate of that production and distribution enters its terminal decline. If global consumption is not mitigated before the peak, an education crisis may develop because the availability of conventional education, training and knowledge will drop and the population will rise, perhaps dramatically (Hubbert peak theory).

Tommy on the lil 90

Heres my first attempt at taking some footage and posting it. It’s Tommy playing around on his smallest ATV.

Get the Flash Player to see this player.

Wonder Twin Powers Activate: International Google Machines

Not since the likes of Zan & Jayna have twin powers activated as they have with the joint appearance of CEOs for IBM & Old Wonder TwinsGoogle at IBM’s PartnerWorld conference this year. As they put it in the Computer World article entitled Google and IBM are bonding in a serious way, “The two CEOs bantered like old golf buddies, praising each other’s organizations and rarely giving moderator Pankaj Ghemawat, a professor of globalNew Wonder Twins strategy at the IESE Business School in Barcelona, Spain, a chance to ask questions.” Schmidt said, “Cloud computing is the story of our lifetime.” Concluding, “Eventually all devices will be on the network.” Schmidt was joined onstage by IBM CEO Sam Palmisano, who said the relationship marks a new territory “It is the first time we have taken something from the consumer arena and applied it to the enterprise.” So, whats with the the oldest computer giant pairing with the latest? Maybe its just that the industry is growing up and its become something new.

Google: Shape of 600 lb. Search Gorilla

Google continues to take shape with things like updating its Finance site, giving Google Video a face lift, and Google: Form of 600lb. Gorilla!continued production of solutions helping others go green. While IBM, the hardware giant of the pair seems in step, this is possible largely because of the dancing space Google’s created; causing Microsoft and Yahoo to consider a merger, analog advertising to fall apart, cell phone networks to become open, and especially bringing a new advertising domain to the table in the form of its massive YouTube audience. These days, nothings too far from the reach of this 600 lb. Googrilla that grew up dominating the tech-world. Google-inspired engineering is especially apparent at IBM with services like Many Eyes and History Flow.

IBM: Form of Enterprise Cloud

The created space hasn’t gone to waste. In all of 2007, IBM reported sales of $98.8 billion, up 8 percent from 2006, IBM:Shape of of Enterprise Cloudleaving most sure of its stranglehold on enterprise service and hardware sales for the time being. The line is blurring between the two companies — Google and IBM — and its making these power twins much more identical these days. Even Google CEO Eric Schmidt had made some admissions to that point. “There’s not that much difference between the enterprise cloud and the consumer cloud,” Schmidt said. Later the CEO even offered a distinction which displays the two companies shared reasoning, “The cloud has higher value in business; that’s the secret to our collaboration,” Schmidt added.

The Greater Story: The Grid

The fact is, theres a greater story to be told. It has to due with all these players and a metamorphosis taking place in the industry. It started with the Internet and continues with the creation of the “Cloud” — a generic name for a platform for utility computing that hopes to eventually process, store and transfer every bit of information on Earth. Its a changeover whereas time passes and giants collide in sometimes peaceful ways as with Google and IBM, and sometimes violent ways as once forced together Microsoft gives up its bid for Yahoo. The metaphors of a Gorilla creating space invokes a more forceful saying as well: Lead, follow, or get out of the way. And as once before humanity saw the local energy provider take shape to become the power company, then become regional, and then global — from a network to a grid — so digital information processing, storage and transfer will go from the unit of the PC, to a network, to an Internet, to a Cloud, later becoming an equally, finely, more tightly bound and integrated Grid of utility computing devices (perhaps it’ll even run on International Google Machines).

Lyrics: Goodbye Yellow Brick Road

My friends (who’ve quit on me) always end up asking me the first two questions in these lyrics — because I apparently need to calm down as they have — and I always reply about the same as the song, from this state of cynical and sarcastic realization: this Superman has too many problems to solve. In other words, I can’t calm down for the same reason I didn’t just stay down on the farm and listen to my old man. I’m not meant for that or to know people that want to live denying the darknesses that surround them when they ought to re-find their youthful innocence, and be inspired to create light — or “be too young to be singing the blues.”

When are you gonna come down
When are you going to land
I should have stayed on the farm
I should have listened to my old man

You know you can’t hold me forever
I didn’t sign up with you
I’m not a present for your friends to open
This boy’s too young to be singing the blues

So goodbye yellow brick road
Where the dogs of society howl
You can’t plant me in your penthouse
I’m going back to my plough

Back to the howling old owl in the woods
Hunting the horny back toad
Oh I’ve finally decided my future lies
Beyond the yellow brick road

What do you think you’ll do then
I bet that’ll shoot down your plane
It’ll take you a couple of vodka and tonics
To set you on your feet again

Maybe you’ll get a replacement
There’s plenty like me to be found
Mongrels who ain’t got a penny
Sniffing for tidbits like you on the ground

Dip Buy

Sometimes and especially in the shakiest markets, a portfolio’s best defense is dip buying. As with any investment, questions must be answered on both sides of the transaction. On the one side are questions about the stock being purchased. Today, everyone asks: does the company rely on a lot of credit or have a lot of debt? On the other side, are questions about purchasing power; questions about how putting this money out right now might alter your own bottom line. So, how ’bout it, do you rely on a lot of credit or have a lot of debt?

Read the rest of this entry »