Say hello to my pet rock: Apophis. This last time we talked about him was February 19th, 2007.

So, what is so exciting about a rock? Especially one thats so far away? I don’t think its that this rock is partly iron. In fact, that may be something that makes it seem less exciting. Its not that this rock is humming through space at the breakneck speed of 1145 MPH. Its not the rock’s mass, some 260,000,000,000 kilograms. No, even though this rock is big and its moving ridiculously fast, theres something much, much more interesting and exciting about Apophis: It just might destroy all or most life on Earth. This isn’t exactly the kind of headline one likes to come across, but especially regarding my old friend, Apophis.

In the article below, a 13 year old German school boy revises NASA estimates on the trajectory of Apophis as it relates to Earth-orbiting satellites. Interestingly, according to various media outlets NASA agreed with the young boy. The original [NASA] estimate concluded Apophis would pass Earth in 2029, giving the giant rock a 45,000 in 1 chance of hitting the Earth on its next pass in 2036. Accounted here, the revised estimate by the German boy suggests that Apophis may have a much better chance of impacting with the Earth. The young boy suggests when Apophis passes in 2029, a pass whereby the asteroid will come closer to the Earth than some man-made satellites, that if Apophis were to come into contact with any of those satellites, it would have the much geater chance of 450 to 1, of hitting and devastating our planet in 2036.

Those satellites travel at 3.07 kilometres a second (1.9 miles), at up to 35,880 kilometres above earth — and the Apophis asteroid will pass by earth at a distance of 32,500 kilometres.

Both NASA and Marquardt agree that if the asteroid does collide with earth, it will create a ball of iron and iridium 320 metres (1049 feet) wide and weighing 200 billion tonnes, which will crash into the Atlantic Ocean.

The shockwaves from that would create huge tsunami waves, destroying both coastlines and inland areas, whilst creating a thick cloud of dust that would darken the skies indefinitely.

Edit: News outlets are now reporting that NASA believes the boy’s sums may have been incorrect.