It was Marcus Aurelius who said “Each thing is of like form from everlasting and comes round again in its cycle.” Looking toward our future in this age of industrial and technological super-boom, maybe whats looming just ahead, is the justice of a balance only nature must keep. In other words, the eventual, equally unrelenting… Super-bust. Its a topic I’ll continue to discuss from a variety of perspectives going forward. The content shown below is mostly reiterated from here, it describes how something just like this can happen, only with our financial structure.

Financial speculator and billionaire, George Soros states in his FT.com commentary: “the current crisis is the culmination of a super-boom that has lasted for more than 60 years.” In June’s Higher Rates Reflect Default Risk we described the end of the last credit boom: “In 1928, the U.S. Treasury Bond similarly broke out of the channel and rose to a higher yield. This coincided with the end of ‘easy’ money which forced the deleveraging of the economy and concluded with the financial crisis of 1929-1932.” Compare the two Treasury Bond Yield charts below. In 2005-2006 higher bond rates “broke out of the channel” and inflicted damage on the housing market. This marked “the end of ‘easy’ money.” Similarly since 2006, there has also been a flight to quality.

George Soros explains what happens next: “if federal funds were lowered beyond a certain point, the dollar would come under renewed pressure and long-term bonds would actually go up in yield. Where that point is, is impossible to determine. When it is reached, the ability of the Fed to stimulate the economy comes to an end.” As we described last June, we expect 10 year Treasury Bonds to be sold for cash in the panic, just as occurred at the end of the last credit cycle. Billionaire investor Julian Robertson agrees. As he revealed to Fortune: “the biggest bet that Robertson has in his own portfolio at the moment” is “long the price of two-year Treasury and short the price of the ten-year Treasury.”

An assumption based in logic, that seems unfortunately too true about our Country is that, in the United States of America, not knowing something makes one popular. This is because, more Americans “don’t know” than those that “do know”,  making ignorance a more socially acceptable attribute at times than intellect.

America, in an age of information, has become a home for a Culture of the Stupid. So says the Washington Post and its sources in a piece titled The Dumbing of America. We have to wonder if this phenomena is the result of people mistaking vision for academic, intellectual or social elitism. Or, if this is just the beginning of an era of Anti-Intellectualism.

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/02/03/national/main3783425.shtml

President Bush on Monday will release a $3 trillion budget for 2009. Here is a look at some of its elements:

DEFICITS: The plan will claim deficits in the $400 billion range for this year and next. For the 2009 budget year covered by the Bush plan, deficits are likely to rise higher than Mr. Bush predicts after additional war costs are added in.

DEFENSE: The Pentagon would get a $35 billion increase to $515 billion for core programs, about 7 percent, with war costs additional. Another $21 billion would go to the Energy Department for nuclear weapons programs. A $70 billion “bridge fund” for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan would give the next president time to consider options, with tens of billions of dollars more needed regardless of any strategy shift.

DOMESTIC APPROPRIATIONS: These would be essentially frozen at current levels, with most services being cut after inflation and population growth are factored in.

HOMELAND SECURITY: Overall, the budget for homeland security programs will increase by almost 11 percent, with a 19 percent increase for border security and immigration enforcement efforts, including new money to secure the border with Mexico.

MEDICARE AND MEDICAID: The programs will see almost $200 billion in cuts over the next five years, about three times the savings proposed last year but rejected by Congress. Much of the savings would come from freezing reimbursement rates for most health care providers for three years and from cutting payments to hospitals serving large numbers of the uninsured poor.

HEALTH: Health and Human Services Department funding would be cut by $2 billion, amounting to a 3 percent reduction. Funding for the National Institutes of Health would be frozen. The Food and Drug Administration would receive a 6 percent boost to $2.4 billion to ramp up food and drug safety efforts.

EDUCATION: Education programs would be frozen at $60 billion, with no increase to keep pace with inflation. Bush is pushing to restore $600 million lawmakers cut from Reading First, which serves low-income children. Title I grants, the main source of federal funding for poor students, would rise about 3 percent. Special education would receive $11.3 billion, a $330 million increase.